Modeling the Spatial and Temporal Spread of COVID-19 in Poland Based on a Spatial Interaction Model

This article describes an original methodology for integrating global SIR-like epidemic models with spatial interaction models, which enables the forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics in Poland through time and space. Mobility level, estimated by regional population density distances among inhabitants, was determining variable model. The spatiotemporal diffusion model, allows temporal prediction case counts possibility their distribution, made it possible to forecast pandemic at a level Poland. model used predict incidence 380 counties Poland, represents much more detailed modeling than NUTS 3 according widely geocoding standard Nomenclature Territorial Units Statistics. research covered entire territory seven weeks early 2021, just before start vaccination results were verified using official epidemiological data collected sanitary stations. As conducted analyses show, application approach proposed article, especially unconstrained gravity destination (attraction) constrained leads obtaining almost 90% coefficient determination, reflects quality model’s fit distribution validation data.